New Product Launches Need More Than a Sales Forecast

In FMCG, new product development is often treated as a race to launch. Teams focus on concept approval, packaging, retailer presentations, promotional plans and projected sales volumes. But once the product is approved and the launch begins, many suppliers lose visibility at the exact moment they need it most.

That is where launches start to drift. Once a product is “ranged”/listed so many factors play a role in the availability of the a “NPD”-new product development. Amongs these are:

• Are all the listings’ parameters met, like correctness of the Master data that enables the sale at point of sale?

• Has the product been ranged in the correct demographics?

• A product can be listed, but not fully distributed. What is the availability prior to the launch?

• What is the demand planning forecasting? What is the plan if the demand exceeds this?

  
  

In summary: It can be distributed, but not consistently available on shelf. It can appear to be in market, while actual store penetration remains too weak to generate the sales momentum expected in the original plan. By the time these gaps show up in standard reporting, valuable weeks have already been lost (especially in the retail environment of automated replenishment)

This is why launch management should be treated as a live commercial process, not a once-off rollout exercise.

A strong new product launch depends on three things being tracked properly from the start:

• Listing (all aspects)

• Distribution

• Constant availability

  
  

If any one of those areas breaks down, the launch is immediately under pressure. Without all three views in one place, businesses are often managing launches with incomplete information.

Listing is the first area that needs close attention. It is critical to measure the number of active stores against the number of listed stores. That gap provides a clear indication of stock penetration and whether the product is getting the exposure it was intended to achieve. A listing on paper does not guarantee a product is present in enough stores to support a successful launch. Measuring active stores versus listed stores helps suppliers identify whether the rollout is gaining real momentum or falling short early on.

Distribution is where speed to market becomes visible. To understand whether a launch is building at the right pace, suppliers need to track the number of active stores with stock on hand on a weekly, even daily, basis. This shows the timeline between launch and full distribution, which is critical in the first few weeks. It also helps flag regions or distribution centres where stock is not moving as expected, along with any stock-related issues that may be slowing rollout. Without this visibility, suppliers often discover too late that the product has not reached the market in the way the launch plan assumed.

Availability is what determines whether early demand can translate into sales. To ensure constant availability and support stronger rate of sale, opening stock orders need to be optimised from the start. One of the most effective ways to do this is to use the rate of sale of a pre-determined like-for-like article as the basis for opening orders. This helps ensure sufficient stock is available without overloading the system, while also giving the new product the best chance of building rate of sale as quickly as possible. An “old fashioned allocation order” is often the only way to correct the immediate need. Poor opening stock decisions can stall a launch before it has had a fair opportunity to establish itself.

The value of this kind of tracking does not stop once the launch phase ends. After launch, it is even more critical for suppliers to track the product performance within the category. It is not enough to know that the product made it to shelf. The real question is whether it is gaining traction against competitors. Tracking category ranking after launch provides that next layer of insight, helping suppliers assess whether the product is becoming competitive or simply present.

BD-Nav’s NPD Tracker gives suppliers one place to manage listing, distribution and availability before and during launch, while also providing post-launch visibility into stock and account “health” with category performance. In practical terms, it helps turn a product launch from a hopeful rollout into a managed commercial process.

Want better control over your next product launch?

BD-Nav’s NPD Tracker helps suppliers monitor store penetration, distribution progress, on-shelf availability and post-launch category performance, all in one place.

Speak to BD-Nav about how to bring more visibility, speed and discipline to your next launch.

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