Planning Promotions with Precision — A Data-Led Approach

In the FMCG environment, successful promotional planning is not about bold claims or mass discounts. It is rooted in data-led decision-making, where the accuracy and relevance of the information determine the efficacy of the promotion. Planning and executing a promotion involves more than generating short-term sales; it must enhance market share, protect margin, and deliver operational efficiency. To do that, suppliers need to assess their current promotional performance through the right metrics.

Start with a Measurable Objective

Every promotion must begin with a clearly defined goal. Whether it’s boosting sales, defending shelf space, launching a new product or growing market share, specificity is crucial. This clarity sets the framework for all subsequent planning, execution, and measurement efforts.

For example, if the goal is to increase market share within a category, the supplier must first understand their current contribution to that category. This includes reviewing category performance across the customer network and analysing how their brand has performed relative to the total category growth over the past 12–24 months. Was the sales performance optimal? Sight is often lost on what was the selling opportunity, stock availability and other influencers that could’ve affected the sales performance negatively. Without these insights, target-setting becomes speculative or based on incorrect real performance numbers. Therefore, this increases the risk of mismatched inventory, misaligned pricing, and ultimately, missed opportunities.

Planning for Seasonality and Volatility

Promotions aligned with seasonal peaks require early planning and data validation. Planning 3–6 months in advance may no longer be sufficient.

Market volatility and shifting consumer trends demand even earlier scenario-building and real-time responsiveness.

To achieve this, teams must review sales volumes from prior periods, as well as key operational metrics such as:

• Out-of-Stock (OOS) frequency and duration

• Fill rate during past promotions

• On-Time In-Full (OTIF) delivery performance

• Returns, price claims, and waste volumes

These data points form a comprehensive view of where gaps occurred and what contributed to those results.

The Relationship Between Execution and Data Integrity

When planning a promotion, the temptation is often to start with an ambitious revenue goal and work backwards. However, this backwards approach often neglects the actual performance drivers that determine whether a promotion will succeed.

For example, if the previous year’s OOS rate during a promotion was 18%, and your fill rate was below 70%, the first question is not “how much more do we want to sell?” but rather “how do we correct the operational issues that led to underperformance?”

Metrics such as OTIF/Fill rate and OOS are more than fulfilment statistics—they are leading indicators of a promotion’s ability to succeed. Improving these metrics prior to execution will yield better results than simply increasing stock volumes.

Setting Up for Measurement and Accountability

Too often, promotional analysis is backwards-looking and limited to sales figures. A proactive approach demands that performance metrics be established before launch. This includes:

• Defining what "success" looks like (e.g. 10% uplift in ROS, 95% fill rate, <5% OOS)

• Assigning responsibility for each KPI across the supply chain, merchandising, and account management

• Ensuring tools are in place to track these metrics in near real-time

Using a measurement like the D-NAV® Toolkit enables the supply team to achieve the desired results.