The Last Chance in 2025: Use the Promo Period to Win Share

As we enter the final stretch of the 2025 calendar, suppliers face a concentrated window: Black Friday—now effectively a month-long event—and the December festive period. The opportunity is significant, but so is the risk. Success requires disciplined planning against real demand and measured execution to avoid January write-downs from overstock.

Promotions are often measured by short-term volume gains. While this is important, the ultimate objective should be to grow or protect market share. This requires a shift from reactive volume reporting to pre-defined, measurable objectives supported by integrated data analysis.

The Importance of a Single Promotional Objective

Promotions that attempt to achieve multiple outcomes often fall short. Clarity is gained when suppliers define a single focus - such as driving unit sales, launching a new product, or gaining new shelf space. This enables better targeting, clearer internal communication, and easier post-event analysis.

Planning Based on Opportunity, Not Just Ambition

Volume targets are typically reverse engineered from budget expectations. However, without considering past performance gaps - such as out-of-stock, low strike rates, or poor on time inventory - future targets become aspirational rather than achievable.

By integrating these variables into promotional planning, suppliers can set realistic stretch targets grounded in opportunity rather than arbitrary numbers. This allows for more meaningful evaluation and minimises variance between forecasted and actual results.

Analysing Share Shift Rather Than Standalone Uplift

Post-promotion analysis should look beyond uplift alone. A more powerful insight comes from assessing share movement- did your promotion take share from competitors, or did it simply grow the category?

This requires suppliers to benchmark their performance against category trends and competitive activity. Where possible, they should assess pricing differentials, loyalty redemptions, and retailer-specific campaign effects to provide a complete picture.